High Exposure Across the Services Landscape
Artificial intelligence is positioned to significantly alter Pakistan’s employment landscape, with 61 percent of service sector workers currently engaged in roles that face above-median AI exposure, according to a report released by the World Bank. The study, titled ‘Job Opportunities and AI in Pakistan,’ assesses the intersection of technological advancement and labor trends, outlining both productivity upsides and workforce challenges across multiple industries.
The findings indicate that Pakistan’s overall average occupational AI exposure score stood at 0.48 standard deviations below the international median in 2024. Nevertheless, national averages obscure notable structural disparities among sectors. While the services industry demonstrates substantial exposure to automated systems and advanced algorithms, foundational sectors such as agriculture remain largely insulated from immediate shifts.
Sectoral Disparities and Exposure Levels
Within Pakistan’s service economy, several critical segments experience high levels of exposure. The World Bank report notes that wholesale and retail trade, finance, insurance, real estate, and education each have more than 80 percent of their labor force operating in roles categorized as highly exposed to AI technologies.
In sharp contrast, industrial and primary production show minimal vulnerability to immediate technological disruption. Manufacturing records an AI exposure rate of just 7 percent, while other industrial sectors stand at 5 percent. Agriculture, which employs a large portion of Pakistan’s national workforce, sits at less than 1 percent exposure due to its concentration of manual, low-exposure occupations. The report points out that while the immediate effect on agricultural workers remains minimal, the technology may still contribute to enhancing overall agricultural output in the long term.
Productivity Gains Versus Replacement Risks
The World Bank underscores that widespread technological exposure does not directly translate into mass unemployment. Instead, the integration of AI tools presents substantial opportunities to complement human labor and boost overall output.
According to the data, approximately 18 percent of employed workers in Pakistan occupy positions that feature both high AI exposure and high human-AI complementarity. These positions—concentrated in fields such as real estate and education—are structured so that digital tools augment employee capabilities rather than supplant them. Conversely, only 8 percent of the national workforce operates in highly exposed roles characterized by low complementarity, representing the narrow segment facing the highest risk of outright job replacement.
The Critical Role of Wholesale and Retail Trade
The report identifies wholesale and retail trade as a crucial battleground for technological adaptation in Pakistan. Unlike specialized technical sectors, wholesale and retail trade pairs an expansive employment base with elevated AI exposure, making its labor transition pivotal to how the broader economy absorbs AI tools.
The World Bank concludes that the final economic impact will hinge directly on how rapidly and effectively local enterprises and workers adopt emerging technologies. The trajectory of this shift will depend on access to relevant digital skills and targeted institutional investments, emphasizing the need for targeted policies that prepare workers for evolving job profiles while assisting domestic firms in leveraging AI for productivity improvements.
